What Actually Determines the Right Offer?
Three inputs, in order of importance. Everything else is noise.
1. Closed comparable sales — not list prices
What did genuinely similar homes close at in the last 90 days? Similar means comparable square footage, condition, lot, and location — ideally the same tract or within a few blocks. List prices tell you what sellers hoped for. Closed sales tell you what buyers paid.
2. Days on market
| Days Listed | Reasonable Approach | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 0 - 14 | At or above asking in competitive areas | Seller has no reason to discount yet |
| 15 - 30 | At or modestly below | First wave of buyers passed |
| 30 - 60 | 5% - 10% below | Carrying costs accumulating; motivation rising |
| 60 - 90 | 10% below, with questions | Something is wrong — price, condition, or both |
| 90+ | Aggressive, but investigate first | Sometimes opportunity, sometimes a problem others found |
3. Your specific submarket
This is where statewide numbers mislead badly. In 2026 Southern California:
- Torrance — homes selling in about 32 days, many still over asking, though the share fell from 55% to 42% year over year.
- Palos Verdes Estates — zero percent sold over asking in February 2026, down from 20% a year earlier. Median days on market reached 99, with roughly 7.4 months of supply.
- Long Beach — nearly 47% of listings took a price reduction in January 2026, up from 38%.
Same county, opposite strategies. Ask for the numbers on your price band and neighborhood before you write.
Looking at a specific property? Roman will pull the closed comps, days-on-market history, and price reduction record before you decide on a number.
Get My Free Savings EstimateWhat Does Offering Over Asking Actually Risk?
The appraisal does not care what you offered. Your lender lends against the purchase price, but only if the appraisal supports it.
If you offer $950,000 on a home that appraises at $920,000, you have a $30,000 gap. Your options:
- Pay the difference in cash — on top of your down payment, and it does not build equity.
- Renegotiate — sellers sometimes meet you, particularly if the market has softened since they listed.
- Split it — a common compromise.
- Cancel under your appraisal contingency and recover your deposit.
In 2021 and 2022, buyers routinely waived appraisal contingencies because prices rose fast enough to cover the gap within months. That reasoning does not hold in a market where some Southern California submarkets have flattened or declined. Waiving the appraisal contingency now transfers real, unhedged risk to you.
Where the Buyer Credit Changes Your Math
This is the part most buyers never consider when setting a number.
With a flat fee buyer agent, whatever a seller offers the buyer's side above $7,250 or $9,250 is negotiated back to you as a closing cost credit. The seller's net proceeds are unchanged — they already agreed to pay that commission.
| Approach | Offer | Seller Nets | Your Cash to Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ask $15,000 off the price | $885,000 | $15,000 less | Reduced by ~$3,000 down + lower loan |
| Offer full price, take the credit | $900,000 | Unchanged | Reduced by ~$15,250 |
In a competitive situation this is a genuine advantage: you can give the seller the number they want while still cutting your own cash requirement. A price reduction costs the seller directly; the credit costs them nothing. Full comparison of the two approaches →
How Do You Read a Listing Before You Offer?
Before deciding on a number, four things tell you most of what you need to know — and all are available before you ever speak to the listing agent.
Price reduction history
A listing that has cut price twice is telling you the original number was wrong and the seller now knows it. That is leverage. No reductions at 15 days says the seller is still confident.
The sale-to-list ratio in that price band
Ask for it specifically — not the citywide figure, the figure for homes like this one at this price. If comparable properties close at 98% of list, offering 92% is unlikely to land. If they close above 100%, you are in a different negotiation entirely.
Whether it was previously listed and withdrawn
A home that failed to sell six months ago and returned at a similar price often has an issue buyers found the first time — condition, location, layout, or an unrealistic seller. Ask before you fall in love with it.
Why the seller is selling
Not always knowable, frequently discoverable. A seller who has already closed on their next home has a deadline. An estate sale usually wants certainty over price. A seller testing the market may not be motivated at all. This decides whether you compete on price or on terms.
The question that reveals the most: ask what the seller needs beyond price — a fast close, a delayed close, or a rent-back while they find their next home. Matching their timeline frequently beats a higher offer, and costs you nothing but flexibility.
Common Mistakes When Setting Your Number
- Anchoring to list price. It is a marketing decision. In Long Beach, 47% of listings took a reduction in early 2026 — nearly half were priced wrong from the start. Work from closed sales.
- Applying a percentage rule. "Always offer 5% under" overpays on a stale listing and loses you a fresh one.
- Ignoring condition in the comps. A renovated comp at $920,000 does not justify $920,000 for a home needing $80,000 of work.
- Forgetting Mello-Roos and HOA dues. Two homes at identical prices can differ by $500 a month in carrying cost.
- Bidding past your appraisal comfort. If you cannot cover a $30,000 gap in cash, do not offer a number that likely creates one.
- Treating the first counter as final. Counters are the normal middle of a negotiation, not a verdict.
Want a second read on a number before you write? Roman will run the comps and tell you plainly whether your offer is strong, weak, or about right.
Get My Free Savings EstimateWhat California Rules Affect What You Pay?
California layers requirements and costs on top of commission that vary sharply by county and city. These matter more than most buyers and sellers expect.
California AB 2992 codified the written agreement requirement
Effective January 1, 2025, California law requires buyers to sign a written representation agreement with their agent before touring properties, specifying how that agent is compensated. It puts into state statute what the August 2024 NAR settlement established nationally — and it is the mechanism that makes a stated flat fee enforceable rather than aspirational.
Transfer taxes vary enormously by city
Every California county charges a documentary transfer tax of $1.10 per $1,000 of value. Cities may add their own, and some add a great deal — the City of Los Angeles imposes an additional tax on high-value sales that dwarfs the county rate. By contrast, no city in Ventura County or San Bernardino County adds a city-level transfer tax at all.
County breakdowns: Los Angeles · Ventura County · San Bernardino County
Disclosure obligations are among the strictest in the country
California requires a Transfer Disclosure Statement, a Natural Hazard Disclosure covering flood, fire, earthquake and seismic zones, and disclosure of known material facts. In wildfire-designated areas — much of Ventura County and the San Bernardino mountain communities — additional documentation applies. Errors here create liability that outlives the closing.
No commission rate is set by law, and never has been
The California Department of Real Estate does not set rates and no MLS may require a minimum. What changed in 2024 is that compensation must now be disclosed and agreed in advance rather than assumed. Full NAR settlement breakdown →
Escrow practice differs from most states
California uses escrow companies rather than attorneys for residential closings. Escrow fees typically run 1% to 2% of price and are commonly split by local custom — but custom is not law, and the split is negotiable.
Where Does Roman Write Offers?
Offer dynamics differ sharply between counties and even between neighborhoods. Roman represents buyers in all four at the same flat fee, with the difference credited back to you at closing.
Related reading: How to Make an Offer · Buying Step by Step · Flat Fee Buyer's Guide · Pricing
How a Flat Fee Agent Changes These Numbers
Roman Doktorovich is a flat fee realtor serving Los Angeles, Orange, Ventura and San Bernardino County — $7,250 under $1.5M and $9,250 at or above, for buyers and sellers alike.
That is different from a discount realtor or low commission realtor, who still charges a percentage — just a smaller one. A percentage still grows with the price of the house. A flat fee does not.
For a buyer setting an offer number, the practical effect is that a commission rebate lets you compete at full price while still cutting your cash to close. See full pricing → · Compare against traditional commission →